2015: Fashola, Okorocha likely APC presidential candidates – Survey

The latest poll conducted by the NOIPoll Limited indicated that either Governors Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State or Rochas Okoracha of Imo State will emerge All Progressive Congress, APC, vice presidential candidate for the February 14, 2015 poll.

The NOIPoll explained that the candidate viability of each potential candidate was measured by cross analysing their familiarity with their net public perception, positive opinions minus negative opinions.

In the presidential candidates’ category of the poll revealed that President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP currently has the best candidate viability among all potential candidates for the 2015 Presidential Elections because of his high familiarity score 99 percent and high net favourability +25.

According to it, “Furthermore, Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State currently has the best candidate viability among potential APC candidates for the 2015 Presidential elections due to his high familiarity score 94 percent and positive net favorability +8.

“The only other candidate that falls in the right upper quadrant with the two aforementioned is Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State and similarly of the APC with a familiarity score of 88 percent and net favourability of 0.

“Another potential APC flag bearer is former military Head of State; Retired Major General Muhammed Buhari. Survey results show that though he is well known 96 percent he has a slightly negative favourability rating -2.

“Other APC members with slightly negative favourability in spite of their high familiarity include Governor Adams Oshiomole of Edo State (-5) and Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State (-7).
“Their slightly negative rating simply implies that a slightly larger proportion of Nigerians have a negative impression about these candidates compared to those that have a positive impression.

“To become viable candidates, the key is to address this by improving their public image before the elections and address potentially negative notions about their candidacy that might be influencing Nigerians’ perception about them. Strategic planning and a well-orchestrated public relations campaign should be sufficient to move these candidates into net positive favourability among Nigerians.

“Potential candidates that have the lowest favourability rating while being highly popular are Vice President Namadi Sambo of the PDP with a net favourability rating of -34 and former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the APC with a net rating of -30.

“This very negative rating for the current Vice President Sambo needs to improve to compliment the President’s net positive favourability rating. Results also indicate that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is as popular as President Goodluck Jonathan 98 percent familiarity versus 99 percent familiarity) however suffers a setback of a net negative favourability of -30 as a result of a poor public perception.

“The candidate with the least familiarity score is Sam Nda-Isaiah of the APC 51 percent. However, it’s interesting to note that though the proportion of those that have a positive opinion of him is the lowest 8 percent among all these potential candidates Sam Nda-Isaiah also has the lowest proportion of people that have a negative opinion about him 31 percent therefore he does not have the lowest net favorability score overall.

“In addition, some of the candidates at the bottom of the table have previously contested for the Presidency under different parties. These candidates such as Dele Momodu, Patrick Utomi and Chris Okotie have a high percentage of people that do not have an opinion of them i.e. they neither had a positive or negative opinion about them even though they were familiar with them,” it said.